Michigan may have been a "must win" state for Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney but Ohio will be his real test. The state’s demographics are tougher vis-à-vis challenger Rick Santorum, while its economic concerns more directly mirror what the Republican Party's nominee will face in the general election campaign.
Compared to Wolverines, Buckeyes are less
affluent, less educated, more rural, and have more evangelical
Christians in their ranks—all these favor Santorum’s Holy Spirit is on
my shoulder campaign.
In Michigan Romney’s economic message trumped all. Exit polls
from Tuesday night's vote indicated that the economy was the number one
concern among voters, and enough Christian conservatives abandoned
Santorum to vote their pocketbook. This permitted the more moderate
candidate on social issues and more substantive candidate on economic
matters to win.
It was not just Romney’s native state
advantage, but the combination of the former Massachusetts' governor's
superior organization and lethal attack ads coupled with his economic
platform that helped him squeeze out a win in Michigan.
The economic situation in Ohio much more
closely resembles the national economy. It's a landscape that will
likely define the fall campaign much more than the economic climate the
candidates encountered this week in Michigan. And it is one that is more
friendly to President Obama than the GOP expected it would be six months ago.
Economists and pundits now see the national
economy as having more bounce this spring and summer than was forecasted
at the beginning of the year.
While first quarter GDP numbers will be
nothing to brag about—those will likely be lower than the 3.0 percent
registered in the fourth quarter—second and third quarter growth looks
more promising. If so, unemployment nationally this summer will look at
lot more like Ohio’s current 7.9 percent than Michigan’s 9.3 percent.
Ohio is also ahead of Michigan in its
economic recovery because it is much less dependent on auto production.
Its economy is more indicative of where the national economy is going
and the issues that will define the fall campaign.
Michigan witnessed a massive bailout for GM
and Chrysler but lots of downsizing and layoffs came with that aid, and
new hiring has not helped it recover in quite the same ways as much of
the rest of America—and Ohio.
The Buckeye State looks remarkably like the
American mean. Unlike liberal northeastern states more certain to go in
the Obama column, it has a solid, business friendly tax and regulatory
climate and a more diversified economy—and its circumstances and
concerns are more squarely located where the rhetoric of the fall
campaign will focus.
Both President Obama and his principal GOP
challengers agree, nothing is more central to resurrecting U.S. growth
and prosperity than reviving manufacturing, fixing the banks—this time,
correctly—and reducing dependence on imported oil. The hard left
including the people who serve in Obama’s cabinet, political moderates
and even the hard right—pick a GOP contender—only disagree on the
methods, not the goals.
Remarkably, manufacturing and finance each
comprise 18.3 percent of Ohio’s economy, and it is a leader in
bioscience and the green economy. Ohio is squarely in the cross-hairs of
the new American economy—making and thinking about things that change
the way we live and compete.
With an electorate
friendly to Santorum’s social message in Ohio, Romney must convince
voters, that the economy, though healing, is still the issue and he has
better answers. That would be his challenge against Mr. Obama in the
fall. If he fails to convince voters to abandon Santorum’s pious social
messaging for the economy, he will likely be just as ineffective in
persuading voters in November to abandon President Obama’s
pontifications about fairness.
So far things have not looked good for Romney—Santorum has been leading in the Ohio polls. However, the most recent tallies show Romney closing—Quinnipiac’s latest poll has Santorum’s lead down to four points and shrinking.
If Romney can’t pull this one out, it is doubtful he can beat Mr. Obama in a campaign defined by a poor but improving economy.
So far things have not looked good for Romney—Santorum has been leading in the Ohio polls. However, the most recent tallies show Romney closing—Quinnipiac’s latest poll has Santorum’s lead down to four points and shrinking.
If Romney can’t pull this one out, it is doubtful he can beat Mr. Obama in a campaign defined by a poor but improving economy.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/03/02/ohio-is-real-test-for-romney-santorum-and-gop/#ixzz1o1YKcw9M
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